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Saturday, October 28, 2006

Sat 28th Oct : English Premier League

So the sheet is out for the wekeend (on the forum) and all the rankings and trends cause a bit of a problem with the picks for this week.

NEWCASTLE to beat Charlton
Newcastle 1012 (but -112 H) are in massive decline to Charlton 708 (-8 A) and so although that 1.85 looks good now - it might only be described as "fair value" at best.

Perhaps Newcastle's 3-0 win over Pompey in the midweek carling Cup will help confidence - and it is "only" Charlton that hey are facing who have lost all four away from home.

I'll stick with the pick for a home win.


LIVERPOOL to beat Aston Villa
Liverpool 1213 (+20 H) face a tough Villa side 881 (+44 A) that's proviing hard to beat - indeed no-one has managed to do it yet.

Liverpool beat Reading 4-3 in midweek (too many goals conceded) and have an upcoming Champions Leauge game too - so will probably be all changed again.

Still Liverpool do very well at home (despite punters jibes) going 15-3-1 last season and 3-1-0 this season and that 109% value is tempting.

Again - I'll probably stick with the bet.


ARSENAL to beat Everton
There's nothing wrong with Arsenal's form 1215 (+0 H) as they're going exactly to sheet level and have won their last two home games 3-0, as well as thumping Reading 4-0 last week.

Everton (890 +55A) though are doing very well and are proably playing like a 950-1000 point side. If that was the case then the Gooners drop to 57%-58% likely to win (making the 1.45 price just 84% value) and a tough one to recommend.

It's not a great bet on the home side then (unless your a Gooner) and they almost turn into LAY territory if you think that Wenger might be tempted to rest players with CSKA Moscow due up on Wednesday.

As a result I have no recommendation on this game.


Sheffield Utd v Chelsea
The sheet says Chelsea are awful value at a price of just 1.35 and are only 58% likely to win.

Trends have Sheff.U (-12H) and Chelsea (+54A) so if you made corresponding changes to the ratings then the winning likeihood probably jumps to around 69% making odds of 1.35 value at 94% (or thereabouts) for Chelsea.

Bascially if you move quickly and get that price then a bet on Chelsea is OK - if the price drops avoid it ... or perhaps even try the LAY bet.

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Gl with whatever you're trying this Saturday.

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