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Monday, October 23, 2006

The Sheet - England Profits

Regular readers will know all about "The Sheet" which is a complicated prediction Spreadsheet that is posted on the main forum every weekend.

It contains data from 9 and a bit seasons now - including match odds- and tries to produce statistical outputs of the "most likely" results. It's these numbers that make up the result percentage numbers in my English match previews each week.

This week the sheet had five likely results and successfully went 4-1 with only Charlton letting the sweep down when they drew 0-0 at home to Watford :
Charlton 59% @ 2.00
Chelsea 80% @ 1.29
Everton 56% @ 1.65
Man Utd 58% @ 1.95
Tottenham 56% @ 1.80

(qualification is 55%+ expectation at home, or 50% expectation away)

A 10pt bet on each would have returned a +17pt profit for a yield of just over 33% which is better than a slap in the face with a wet fish.

The Sheet also suggests potential value bets and "value hunters" may taken five different bets this weekend :
Wigan @ 2.35 won 4-0
Blackburn @ 2.40 lost 0-1
Reading @ 6.50 lost 0-4
Man United @ 1.95 won 2-0
Middlesbro @ 2.50 won 1-0

(qualification for this system is value rating of 105% and at least 30% winning chance)

Overall the value bets went 3-2 and again a 10pt bet on each would have returned +18pts for 36% yield.

So a profit this week for the sheet on both EPL systems - backing up well from the 7-1 midweek pick rate in the UEFA Champions League and hopefully it helped you into a bit of cash.

Catch you next week.

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