(Click image to see the full sheet)
With the English Premier League taking a week - and the FA Cup always a bit unpredictable - we have to turn our attention to Italy to find quality league action.
Fortunately the sheet has responded with quite a few picks.
Most likely wins :
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The sheet has come up with six games where the home team is considered to be the most likely result - and here is a list of the sides who are at 55% or better :
- AS Roma (58%) to beat Siena at Bet365
- Cagliari (55%) to beat Reggina at EuroBet
- AC Milan (85%) to beat Parma at Bet365
- Fiorentina (86%) to beat Livorno at Interwetten
- Atalanta (60%) to beat Catania at PaddyPower
- Chievo (56%) to beat Empoli at EuroBet
Value punting :
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However, I'm a big fan of looking for value when taking a punt - and so I'll only have a shot on those home teams where they've got green ink in the value column - meaning that the odds being paid are better than the risk that I'm taking.
I see four home sides that are worth a shot :
- Sampdoria 22% @ 6.00 to beat Inter Milan (132% value)
- Cagliari 55% @ 2.15 to beat Reggina (117% value)
- Fiorentina 86% @ 1.55 to beat Livorno (133% value)
- Chievo 56% @ 2.40 to beat Empoli (135% value)
Staking suggestion for value bets (using a Kelly Criteria variant) :
- Fiorentina 200 units
- Cagliari & Chievo 100 units each
- Sampdoria 25 units.
Handicap options :
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For punters that prefer taking thea asian handicap style of betting - the sheet also has four selections - although the calculations are not shown - so I'll list them out here.
Saturday :
Take Udinese +0.25 @ 1.86 to beat Torino
Sunday :
Take Chievo -0.25 @ 1.93 to beat Empoli
Take Fiorentina -1.00 @ 2.05 to beat Livorno
Take Cagliari -0.25 @ 1.93 to beat Reggina
(all handicap odds from PinnacleSports)
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