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Friday, February 23, 2007

The Sheet -> England - Feb 24th/25th


(click the image to see the full sized sheet)

LIKELY WINNERS
=================

It predicts "likely" winners for both Liverpool and Manchester Utd and with both prices in fair value ranges (99% and 100% respectively) they're a reasonable play - at fair value.

Manchester United to win at Fulham @ 1.50 at Interwetten
Liverpool to beat Sheffield United @ 1.36 at Ladbrokes

VALUE BETS
=================

On the "value" bet side the sheet recommends a play on Charlton @ 2.40 (115%) and Blackburn @ 2.30 (111%).

Note that although Fulham are at 125% value - they are not included in my personal system becasue they are at less than 25% chance of winning.

The estimated 17% equates to a 1 in 6 chance - meaning that I might have to wait for up to six seasons for a payoff and I'm not going to chase that.

So although Fulham are at 7.50 (instead of a fair price of 6.00) it just too unlikely to be worth a play in my opinion.

Charlton Athletic to beat West Ham @ 2.40 at Betsson
Blackburn Rovers to beat Portsmouth @ 2.30 at Bet365

That's four plays worth considering this weekend.
Good luck with whatever you're backing.

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